In today’s Herald there is an editorial that considers carefully the position of Labour in Scotland. It informs that although Labour’s vote in Scotland did not go down, a large number of “traditional” Labour voters migrated to the SNP while Labour picked up a large number of Lib Dem votes.
What is clear, and what was clear on last night’s Dispatches is that the coalition government has damaged the Lib Dem’s more that any other party, partly as a result of the coalition itself but also because they appear to have politically out manoeuvred at every turn and over every significant policy by the wilier Conservatives.
In Scotland the Lib Dem vote collapsed. Labour picked up some of it but what may be of greater interest is that there are a significant number of voters who are no longer vote on the premise of who they “always” supported. Voting is now an entirely subjective affair. In the midst of the disaster that Labour experienced is there some kind of opportunity?
I am not convinced that the majority of those who voted SNP voted for independence. The SNP are a well organised centrist party who have a strong leader and who have articulated a vision for Scotland while at the same time maintaining a powerful Scottish identity. At their core the SNP wish to distance Scotland from the coalition government. This had a resonance with the electorate and we now have a majority SNP government who are making progress on at least one of their economic aims.
Labour in Scotland appears hidebound by England. This is a dangerous position for Labour. The SNP now can put clear water between themselves and the worst of the coalition's excesses, particularly in the public sector cuts saying “It definitely wasn’t us. It’s the Tories who are making us all pay for the excesses of the previous Labour government” cleverly blaming both of their opponents and restating their own position as the defenders of Scotland.
What now for Labour in Scotland? A root and branch review? Well at least, Labour was decimated, the Labour vote is now harder than ever to classify and there is a need to establish exactly what Scottish Labour is.
In the election this was never clear Labour did not identify well enough with Scotland and Labour was not identifiably Scottish. These two areas need to be addressed and addressed quickly and comprehensively. Failure to do so leaves Labour looking uncertain and potentially indulgent.
Labour need's to ask a series of difficult questions. Not least of which is “Who are our supporters?” Evidence would suggestthe retention of a strong base and there has been a migration of a number of voters who wished to vote against Lib Dems. The problem with voting patterns such as this is that such voters are inconsistent, while they are with Labour just now how does Labour retain them. Labour needs to remember there is no brand loyalty.
Secondly, how does Labour manage to be a Scottish branch of a unionist party? What makes Labour different form the others? What makes Labour more attractive? The emerging answer seems to be renewed commitment to a more federalist approach. The danger here is that Labour is seen as SNP lite, only interested in this because the opponents favour similar approaches
Finally, how does Labour build toward a solid base, how to does it re-emerge from this defeat and gain support, and from where? Does it go after those previous Labour voters who migrated to the SNP? Or does it target those who did not vote, try to develop a new voter base?
There are others of course, but for me these are the ones that occupy my mind. What I see as being of primary importance is how Labour develops the “root and branch” review. How does the party in Scotland reflect, critically and positively on the defeat? The root and branch review needs to be a new jumping off point.
Reviews such as this need to concentrate on more than apportioning blame. It needs to be reflective and critical, it needs to develop a real strategy that can be communicated and that people can buy into. It needs to recognisably Labour and recognisably Scottish. It needs to seek the opinions of all of those involved and synthesise these into a series of policies that brand Labour in as effective a way as possible. Labour needs to accept it is a party of opposition, a period of reflection should be seen as a strength. But after this Labour needs to be seen as decisive. Labour needs a leader who people can organise behind, one who is seen as credible and more importantly one who has confidence in the policies they articulate. Labour need to change, and change quickly.
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